Baseball Prospectus Reveals its Projections for the 2016 World Series

The World Series baseball betting lines for 2016 seem firmly in favor of just nine teams, nine teams that actually have a viable chance in the title race. The idea that only nine teams boast a notable chance of winning the Fall Classic is being purported by a report from Baseball Prospectus.

Of course, the fans of most of the other franchises will vehemently disagree with the conclusions of this site. Yet, looking at the expected winning percentages of all the clubs, it is difficult to deny the conclusions of the report.

And it is relatively easy to see who made the cut.

The Chicago Cubs have been assigned a 17.3 percent chance of overcoming their title drought, which should please Cubs fans. The club has a 32-14 record in the MLB standings, this along with a four and a half games lead over the Pittsburg Pirates (who are in second place). 

At 1.7 percent, the World Series odds for the Pirates are extremely low, especially considering how well they have been playing. Then again, considering their .508 expected winning percentage, the Pirates will have trouble keeping up with the Cubs. Baseball Prospectus expects the Pirates to close the season with a record of 85-77 (which is somewhat abysmal compared to the cubs and their 98-64 projected record).

In comparing the rest of the teams from the National League, the New York Mets come out faring better than the Pirates with an 8.4 percent winning chance. At 8.0 percent, the Los Angeles Dodgers do not seem that much better off than the Mets, this along with the Washington Nationals and their 7.9 percent Winning Odds.

Along with the San Francisco Giants and their 4.5 percent winning odds, comparisons with the Chicago Cubs are difficult to make when the Cubs’ odds almost double those of every other team in the NL.

With the American League, fans should be paying close attention to the three teams with decent 2016 World Series Odds crowded at the top, namely: the Cleveland Indians (11.5 percent), the Seattle Mariners (10.2 percent) and the Boston Red Sox (10.9).

The Cleveland Indians might not be leading any of the divisions. At 25-21, they might also be trailing the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central but they have the highest percentage.

At 27-22, the White Sox have a 5.0 percent chance of taking the title. 

Baseball Prospectus has won a lot of accolades over the years because of all the efforts it injects into putting these projections together. Of course, none of these projections guarantee any of these teams any real success.

Even teams like the Chicago Cubs (who have a 98.0 percent chance of reaching the 2016 MLB Playoffs) and the Boston Red Sox (84.6 percent) could just as easily underperform.

Neither the Seattle Mariners not the Washington Nationals made it to the playoffs. This is despite heading into the 2015 MLB season being projected as the most likely opponents in the World Series.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Minnesota Twins will not appreciate the idea of being presented as the worst teams in the American league. Neither team was given a shot at making the postseason.

Vanessa Coleman

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