According to Lancet study, 98 mn Indians may have diabetes by 2030

However, as per the study, around 33 million people with type 2 diabetes do not have access to insulin, and by 2030, the number will touch 41 million.

The one-year health outcomes from our Low Carb Program were published earlier this year which showed that reduced dependency on medications, including insulin, were among the programme's benefits. The study says that if access does not improve in the coming years, only 30 million will receive insulin to control their type 2 diabetes.

The most recent study out of Stanford used data from multiple past studies to model the anticipated amount of insulin that will be needed for type 2 diabetes from now until 2030.

Making insulin widely accessible would have the greatest impact in the African region, where insulin use would increase from around 700 000 people to over 5 million.

Nonetheless, Gerstein highlighted several limitations to the microsimulation analysis, including the fact that it's "based on various assumptions", e.g., that prevalence of type 2 diabetes will increase in a linear fashion; that people ages 75 will continue to be as frail in 2030; and that there won't be any new therapies developed to prevent eye and nerve disease related to diabetes.

The Guardian quoted Dr Sanjay Basu from Stanford University in the U.S., who led the research, as saying the current levels of insulin access are inadequate specially in Africa and Asia, requiring more efforts to overcome this shortage. Not all diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, however, will need insulin; only 79 million people by 2030 would need to take insulin. While not all of them need insulin, many do. The United States will have the third highest numbers globally, with 32 million people predicted to be living with the condition in 2030.

As global rates of type 2 diabetes soar and people with type 2 diabetes live longer, a comprehensive picture of global insulin need is required because insulin treatment is costly, and the worldwide insulin market is presently dominated by only three major manufacturers, they said.

The study's lead author, Stanford University's Dr. Sanjay Basu, described the situation as a "looming health challenge". The cost is one of the main reason as the price of insulin had already tripled between 2002 and 2013.

Though few lifestyle changes, changing the diet and some natural foods aid to lower blood sugar level, the need for insulin have not come down but rather the need increasing more than the production.

The findings suggest that the total number of type 2 diabetes sufferers will increase by 20%, from 406 million in 2018 to 551 million in 2030.

Vanessa Coleman

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